With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's revised hardware forecast reflects disappointing Switch and game sales, falling "below expectations." Dedicated game console business revenue plummeted 31.7% year-on-year to ¥895.5 billion (approx. $5.7 billion) during the first nine months of the fiscal year, due to decreased sales of both the Switch console and its software. Mobile and IP-related income also suffered, dropping 33.9% year-on-year to ¥49.7 billion (approx. $320 million), largely attributed to the tough comparison with 2023's highly successful Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-on-year decline in gross profit to ¥565.5 billion (approx. $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, the second consecutive revision. The company anticipates even fewer Switch hardware sales than previously projected, reducing its forecast by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million. While sales declines are expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo anticipated. Nevertheless, the Switch boasts over 150 million units sold—a remarkable achievement. While surpassing the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales to become the best-selling console of all time might be a stretch, it's within striking distance of the Nintendo DS's 154 million.

Nintendo described Switch and software sales in Q3 2024 (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable, given the platform's eighth year." Overall Switch family sales fell 30.6% year-on-year to 9.54 million units, and software sales declined 24.4% to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong performance from several new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership also achieved 1.4 million sales.

Super Mario Party Jamboree proved particularly successful, outpacing previous Mario Party titles on the Switch in its first 11 weeks (since October 17, 2024). Crucially, active Switch users remain high, with 129 million annual players in 2024, indicating continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that Switch unit sales declined year-on-year, but holiday season sales in some weeks even surpassed those of the previous year.

Given the financial report, investors eagerly await the Switch 2's launch. Nintendo mentioned upcoming Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, both scheduled for 2025. The company reaffirmed the Switch 2's 2025 release, announced on January 16th, and promised a dedicated Direct on April 2nd with further details and global hands-on events.